As COVID-19 infections spike in the country resulting in restrictions in various states and impacting the fragile recovery, many economists are expecting RBI to delay the policy normalisation move, which is expected in the February review. The country has reported a single-day rise of 58,097 new Covid-19 cases as of Wednesday morning--the highest in around 199 days -- of which 2,135 are Omicron cases and later in the day, the first confirmed Omicron-related death has also been reported. Maharashtra recorded the maximum number of 653 Omicron cases followed by Delhi at 464, Kerala 185, Rajasthan 174, Gujarat 154 and Tamil Nadu 121 cases, taking the total tally of cases to 3,50,18,358.
Among the Sensex stocks, Larsen & Toubro rose the most by 3.96 per cent after the company announced a major project win in the Middle East. HDFC, HDFC Bank, Sun Pharma, ITC, HUL, Titan, TCS, HCL Tech, Asian Paints, Bajaj Finance, Infosys and Tata Steel were among the major gainers.
'Any finality in such matters requires political views. We will review it closer to the full Budget.'
The finance ministry has cautioned that global and regional uncertainties and domestic disruptions may keep inflationary pressures elevated in the coming months, warranting "greater vigilance" by the government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). "Russia's decision to terminate the Black Sea grain deal, along with dry conditions in major wheat-growing areas, caused a price spike in cereals. Domestic factors like white fly disease and an uneven distribution of monsoon exerted pressure on vegetable prices in India," the ministry said in its latest Monthly Economic Report for July, released on Tuesday. However, the report maintained, the recent price surge in certain food items "is expected to be transitory". "Tomato prices are likely to decline with the arrival of fresh stocks by the end of August or early September.
The government announced several incentives in the five-year Foreign Trade Policy.
Events to keep an eye out for...
RBI's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data and global trends would dictate terms in the equity market in a holiday-shortened week, analysts said. Besides, the focus will also be on foreign portfolio investors' trading activity, they added. Equity markets will remain closed on Tuesday for 'Mahavir Jayanti' and on Friday on account of 'Good Friday'.
Why did the political system in the country react to these two decisions of the Modi government in a diametrically opposite manner? asks A K Bhattacharya.
To strengthen corporate governance practices and disclosure requirements, Sebi has notified new rules, including that top 1,000 listed firms will have to formulate a dividend distribution policy. The regulator has also put in place a framework in relation to applicability, constitution and role of the Risk Management Committee (RMC) and eased norms for re-classification of a promoter as a public shareholder, according to a notification dated May 5. In addition, the regulator has asked listed firms to make available audio and video recordings of analyst and investor meets on their websites as well as stock exchanges within 24 hours or before the next trading day and also notified rules regarding Business Responsibility and Sustainability Report (BSSR).
The proposed policy is increasingly becoming an item of negotiation, as the US pushes hard to change India's stance.
Asserting that Article 370 is a thing of the past, Shah stated that no one can bring it back.
The central government's Great Nicobar development project, proposed around an unprecedented transhipment port, will be executed to keep environmental impact minimal, and is essential as it is of national importance, the government has said amid calls to abort the controversial project due to ecological concerns, the Centre said in an official statement.
The policy proposes a single-window platform for facilitation of the Indian software product industry, to help fast-track legal and regulatory issues over import and export, as well as setting up and winding up enterprises.
Market participants attribute the stability to the Reserve Bank of India's timely intervention in the foreign exchange market, both in terms of selling and buying dollars.
The banking system's liquidity slipped into deficit for the first time in the current financial year (2023-24) due to the imposition of the Incremental Cash Reserve Ratio (I-CRR) for banks and outflows from goods and services tax (GST) payments, according to dealers. Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data shows it injected Rs 23,644 crore on August 21. The last time liquidity was in deficit was on March 27, when the RBI injected Rs 45,575 crore.
The US launched an investigation, focusing on whether the tax in India and other countries discriminated against American companies, were retroactive, and reflected unreasonable tax policy.
The battered rupee is likely to trade in the range of 54-56 against dollar in the current fiscal with a possibility of widening of this band depending on strengthening of the US unit, Citi Research said.
The council resisted intense pressure from the powerful manufacturing, pharma and other trade lobbies that have urged the Obama administration to enact punitive measures against India for a laundry list of alleged intellectual property and patent violations.
Market players attribute the rally in small and midcaps to flows from retail investors and domestic institutions.
India has been relatively insulated from the severe headwinds in the West. However, with a third of the global economy expected to slip into recession in calendar year 2023, the impact will strongly be felt on India's exports and trade economy, leading economists said in a panel discussion at the Business Standard BFSI Insight Summit in Mumbai on Wednesday. The panel comprised former Reserve Bank of India executive director and former Monetary Policy Committee member Mridul Saggar, State Bank of India Chief Economic Advisor Soumya Kanti Ghosh, Citibank India Chief Economist Samiran Chakraborty, ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar, and IndusInd Bank Chief Economist Gaurav Kapoor. The topic of the panel discussion was No recession in sight: Is India decoupled from developed economies?
Few finance ministers announce any taxation measure that could upset the stock market. Ms Sitharaman decided to take that risk, observes A K Bhattacharya.
The Centre for Strategic and International Studies recommended the United States to undertake a comprehensive policy review to determine how to assist India with developing its defense industrial base through co-production and co-development projects.
The Trump administration terminated India's designation as a beneficiary developing nation under the Generalized System of Preferences in June.
US said access to affordable health care entails a large number of factors from rates, logistics to insurance reforms.
India had been engaged in a contentious battle with the US over the issue, especially in the pharmaceutical sector.
Market participants do not expect any immediate impact on the rupee from the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) a "comprehensive" master direction aimed at strengthening the framework for hedging foreign exchange risks. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das, in his monetary policy statement, revealed that the central bank is poised to issue a master direction to consolidate guidelines for all types of forex transactions. But this development, according to market players, is more of a directional guidance than a mandatory directive.
The unilateral pressure by US administration on India, at the behest of US Business Associations lobby through US International Trade Commission investigations and request to USTR to enlist India under Priority Foreign Country under Special 301 review, lacks legitimacy under WTO framework, the signatories to the letter said.
This time, RBI can cut rates to reflect the improved fundamentals and to further shrink the arbitrage window.
Leading economists have pencilled in a high 13-15.7 per cent uptick in the economy in the first quarter of 2022-23 with an upward bias. Soumya Kanti Ghosh, the group chief economic adviser at State Bank of India, on Tuesday said he expects the GDP to clip past 15.7 per cent in the first quarter with more chances of the final numbers printing in higher, while Aditi Nayar, the chief economist at the rating agency Icra, said the economy will grow much lower at 13 per cent in the June quarter. The national statistical office will announce the first quarter GDP numbers later next week.
India and the US on Sunday agreed to enhance their engagement on intellectual property rights, a vexed issue between the two countries.
Prices may go up because of higher energy costs, caused by the rise in shipping charges, with commercial vessels taking a longer route to avoid the troubled Red Sea region, the finance ministry said on Monday. Iran-backed Houthi rebels of Yemen are repeatedly attacking ships in the Red Sea. While the global economy is grappling with challenges such as sticky inflation, sluggish growth, and mounting fiscal pressure, India's external sector could face "potential risks" due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions, according to the finance ministry's report on the review of the Indian economy.
The World Bank's latest review of its purchasing power parity (PPP) baseline will reignite the poverty debate.
In an address at the Indian Council of World Affairs, he said Nepal wants to take the relations with India to the next level, but at the same time added: "We should be mindful equally that healthy relations require continuous nurturing, creative thinking, promptness and readiness to understand each other in changing dynamics."
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The partially convertible rupee closed at 63.37/38 per dollar compared with 62.83/84 on Monday. The unit dropped 0.85 per cent on the day, its biggest single-day fall in two weeks.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will meet top executives of asset reconstruction companies (ARCs) on Friday to take stock of the sector. During the meeting, ARCs will also seek clarity from the regulator on bank borrowing. While there is no regulatory ban in place, ARC sources said banks often refuse funding.
The central bank's currency management will be critical over the next few months. A weaker rupee could help to revive exports. But, the currency must fall slowly and in controlled fashion, says Devangshu Datta.
Foreign investors have pulled over Rs 6,400 crore from the Indian equity market in the first four trading sessions of the ongoing month when the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and US Federal Reserve raised interest rates. Given the headwinds in terms of elevated crude prices, inflation, tight monetary policy among others, FPIs' flows in India are expected to remain volatile in the near term, Shrikant Chouhan, Head - Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities, said. Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) remained net sellers for seven months to April 2022, withdrawing a massive amount of over Rs 1.65 lakh crore from equities. This was largely on the back of anticipation of a rate hike by the US Federal Reserve and due to the deteriorating geopolitical environment following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
For the first time in 21 years, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will revise norms for investment portfolios of commercial banks to reflect changes in global standards on valuation and measurement, and progress in the domestic market. This could pave the way for banks to transition to the new accounting standards (Ind-AS). The outstanding investment portfolio of commercial banks was at Rs 45.84 trillion as of November 19 this year.
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